I fixed the problem. I was going to try loading without the config, alsactl store, save it, reboot with config and have it automatically restore from that at boot, but it turned out to be unnecessary. On a hunch, I just went into my BIOS and disabled onboard sound. It eventually started randomly giving/not giving me sound when I would boot up, regardless of whether I loaded the config. I still have no idea what specifically caused it, but disabling onboard sound fixed it completely. There's no real reason I need onboard sound, but it came enabled by default, and I never saw a reason to change it. Hopefully anyone who finds themselves in a similar situation will benefit from this thread.